On the events unfolding in Iran

I think it's about time I voiced my opinion on the situation in Iran.

There have been too many knee-jerk reactions from both sides- those supporting the uprising, and those supporting the existing the government. Let's examine the positions of both sides for a moment.

Those who show support for the Islamic Republic do so because to them, the situation appears to be another attempt at a U.S.-backed color revolution, in which the U.S., and in this case, probably Israel, attempt to shoe-in a candidate friendly towards them, in this case, the reformist Mousavi. This has happened many times in the past, so I don't think it's fair that supporters of the uprising try to silence everyone that disagrees with them with accusations of 'conspiracism'. Their judgement is based on the assumption that the reformist opposition in Iran is analogous to the opposition in Venezuela; a small minority of westernized, urban intellectuals who seek to depose the national-bourgeoisie and return the comprador-bourgeoisie to power. There would, of course, be a liberalization of the theocratic social values, which would be a positive thing, but at the same time, they assume there would be a restoration of the neocolonial relationship with the United States, strengthening imperialism in a time at which it should be in decline, and retarding the global class struggle.

Those who show support for the opposition fall into two categories:

1. The liberal, and in the western media, mainstream opposition: Those who see the opposition's use of the slogan 'Death to the dictator' in the western sense, with dictator = anyone the U.S. doesn't like. To me, it seems this group buys into the typical western viewpoint with regards to the Middle East; that every regime that doesn't westernize and adopt bourgeois-liberal capitalism is intrinsically unpopular with it's people- That all of its supporters are brainwashed, and all of those against it live in fear, waiting for the day brave, white, American men will storm in and free them from their asiatic barbarism. Ok, I apoligize, that was a caricature.

2. The left-wing opposition: Those who see the uprising not as a reformist struggle, of a people angered over a 'stolen election', but rather, an expression of widespread discontent against the Islamic Republic. Evidence for this viewpoint... Well, there are a few pictures from the Iranian riots in which red flags are visible among the protestors. There's the fact that Obama is stating that he doesn't really prefer one candidate over the other, and just wants the chaos to end, which could suggest that the U.S. fears the demonstrators radicalizing more than either candidate.

For anti-imperialists, picking a side here is tricky. I myself am still wavering between either pole, as I read more information from either side.

The fact is, I don't live in Iran. The Iranian exiles who are getting indignant whenever someone challenges their viewpoint don't live in Iran. There has been almost a complete media blackout except from the official Iranian news sources and from the demonstrators themselves.

Those who do not live in Iran have no way of telling which side represents which class, so it's impossible for me to confidently throw my support behind one side or another. To me, it all comes down to the Iranian working class, and I'm getting mixed messages with regards to what side they support.

There is the possibility that this situation could be similar to the Russian Revolution- That the traditionalists are held in power due to support from the landed aristocracy and the rural petty-bourgeoisie, and that the center of opposition is the industrial proletariat, which is divided into both a liberal wing, comparable to the Kadets, and a radical wing, comparable to the Bolsheviks. In this case, perhaps the pro-government forces may still outnumber the opposition, yet the opposition will be worth supporting- An overthrow of the Islamic regime will be a shedding of feudalist fetters.

Perhaps, this may lead to a liberal pro-western government, similar to that of Kerensky. Of course, such a government is not a good thing, but perhaps the exacerbation of the current economic crisis and the inability to live up to their lofty promises will thoroughly discredit liberalism in the eyes of the Iranian working class, giving momentum to only remaining alternative- the Iranian communists.

On the other hand, if the Iranian working class is largely pro-Ahmadinejad, and the opposition is indeed merely small cliques of well-off westernized, urban intellectuals, then perhaps this is indeed a 'color revolution', and the government does deserve critical support- not because we support Ahmadinejad and theocracy, but because communists should always oppose any attempt by imperialist powers to 'force' the developing world to a stage of development they are not yet ready or willing to live under.

Time will tell whether or not the Iranians are ready for change.
Of course, if someone has concrete evidence showing exactly which side has the support of the Iranian working class, it would certainly clear things up.